Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:33:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f14…29d1 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,202
7 days+$1,045
14 days+$1,132
30 days+$1,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,133
other 10% −$26
crypto 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.0% -12.3% 48% 30% +42.5%
≤30d 39 +3.5% -6.4% 59% 41% +35.6%
≤90d 39 +3.5% -6.4% 59% 41% +35.6%
all 39 +3.5% -6.4% 59% 41% +35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 41% +35.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 31% +22.6%
15% -23.5% 26% +10.8%
20% -31.0% 23% -0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$16 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.37 per $1 lost it wins $5.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage10d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $411 +$275 +67%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $738 +$602 +82%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$325 +325%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 −$41 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 −$11 -11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $153 −$89 -58%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +103%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $55 +$37 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $35 −$3 -8%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $15 +$3 +21%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $22 +$2 +7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $119 +$23 +20%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $46 −$2 -5%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $15 +$4 +27%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +22%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $63 +$51 +81%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $26 +$2 +9%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $29 −$18 -64%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $25 +$24 +99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $25 +$10 +40%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 +$7 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 29m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $923 53m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $425 54m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 82¢ $575 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $68 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $100 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $100 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $44 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $14 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $35 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $33 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $17 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $83 59m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $88 59m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $84 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $309 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $89 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $92 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $47 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $65 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records