Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f12…95c3 crypto 302 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$417 (-3%) realized −$415 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%145W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day48.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1,256
sports 7% +$56
world 5% +$40
other 2% −$45
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.2% -18.7% 53% 38% -11.5%
≤30d 47 -10.2% -18.7% 53% 38% -11.5%
≤90d 298 +1.5% -8.2% 49% 37% -17.9%
all 298 +1.5% -8.2% 49% 37% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 37% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 29% -25.8%
15% -25.0% 25% -33.0%
20% -32.3% 23% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses145 / 153
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)298 / 302
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day48.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
England to score first vs. Ghana? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Up 86¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $28 +$15 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 -6%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$4 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$5 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$2 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$6 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $139 +$86 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 31m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 34m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $44 4h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 5h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 95¢ $10 12h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 95¢ $10 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $12 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $11 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.05 · official $158.71 · 3500 history records