Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7f0f…c1eb crypto 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate95%211W / 12L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.6% -13.6% 89% 9% -13.6%
≤30d 185 +0.4% -9.2% 94% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 223 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 9% -7.7%
all 223 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 9% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 9% -7.7%
10% -16.5% 3% -16.5%
15% -24.6% 0% -24.6%
20% -32.0% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses211 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage46d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 435 history records