Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f0b…0302 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$877 (+30%) realized +$874 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$828
14 days+$936
30 days+$936
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$916
other 11% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +54.7% +40.0% 67% 67% +68.1%
≤30d 26 +6.0% -4.1% 46% 46% +24.4%
≤90d 26 +6.0% -4.1% 46% 46% +24.4%
all 26 +6.0% -4.1% 46% 46% +24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 46% +24.4%
10% -13.3% 42% +12.5%
15% -21.7% 38% +1.6%
20% -29.4% 38% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$33 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized+$874
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$17 -34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$109 +107%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $264 +$328 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$100 +98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$69 +68%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$8 -37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $304 +$258 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$50 -49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $162 +$21 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $223 +$67 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$47 -77%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$14 -47%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$167 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $102 −$9 -8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $304 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra BUY 32¢ $102 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $34 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $203 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State BUY 31¢ $51 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $211 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $102 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $592 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 97¢ $202 5d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $51 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $102 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $112 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 84¢ $171 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 31¢ $13 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 30¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 32¢ $20 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $101 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 30¢ $35 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 32¢ $17 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $84 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $45 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $56 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $53 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.63 · official $402.63 · 66 history records