Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f0a…8538 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$713 (+13%) realized +$713 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate86%103W / 17L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days−$31
14 days−$13
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$745
other 2% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.5% -28.9% 62% 38% -14.6%
≤30d 32 +6.4% -3.7% 81% 62% -4.2%
≤90d 120 +17.5% +6.3% 86% 63% +1.8%
all 120 +17.5% +6.3% 86% 63% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 63% +1.8%
10% -3.8% 33% -7.9%
15% -13.1% 18% -16.8%
20% -21.7% 15% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$37 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$713
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses103 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage84d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $163 +$36 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $73 +$23 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $77 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $76 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$52 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$28 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $25 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $162 +$18 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 31 $115 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $157 +$37 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $94 +$77 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $62 +$32 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $129 +$34 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $31 +$42 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 30 $117 +$29 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $148 +$22 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $129 +$108 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 25 $92 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 25 $90 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 24 $37 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 24 $86 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $84 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 24 $83 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 23 $46 +$30 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 23 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $46 +$20 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 21 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $53 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 16 $15 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 16 $14 +$4 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $73 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $49 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $28 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $28 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $36 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $33 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $28 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $22 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 800 history records