Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f06…6f27 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (242 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-11%) realized −$8 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day242.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$21
other 18% −$7
crypto 17% −$20
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (242 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.1% -21.4% 36% 33% -35.9%
≤30d 33 -13.1% -21.4% 36% 33% -35.9%
≤90d 33 -13.1% -21.4% 36% 33% -35.9%
all 33 -13.1% -21.4% 36% 33% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover242.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 33% -35.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 33% -42.0%
15% -35.8% 30% -47.6%
20% -42.1% 24% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)33 / 56
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day242.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 38¢ 36¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay leading at halftime? No 52¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? No 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 67¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Las Vegas Aces 49¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 33¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 40¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? No 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$4 -39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $13 −$7 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$2 -20%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +136%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -47%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2 +$1 +72%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $2 +$1 +74%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4 +$2 +42%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $2 +$4 +177%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +145%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $1 0m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $1 0m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $1 3m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $1 3m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $1 3m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $1 3m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 4m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 7m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $1 7m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 10m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $2 16m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $2 16m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $3 16m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $3 16m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $3 16m
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 49¢ $1 19m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $3 20m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $2 20m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $3 20m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $2 20m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $2 20m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 21m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 21m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 1¢ $0 22m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 1¢ $0 22m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 1¢ $0 22m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 1¢ $0 22m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 1¢ $0 22m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 1¢ $0 22m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $1 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.90 · official $42.90 (match) · 248 history records