Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f02…97c5 other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+1%) realized +$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 56L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$12
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$13
other 18% +$60
politics 18% −$10
sports 2% +$94
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +5.0% -5.0% 12% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 48 -9.2% -17.8% 15% 12% -10.1%
all 70 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 13% -9.0%
10% -18.3% 13% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 11% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$2 · ×7.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage591d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $43 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $15 +$13 +83%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $78 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $123 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $447 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $307 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $439 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $213 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $223 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $226 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $202 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $419 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $227 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $209 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 +$13 +79%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-03-14? Apr 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Apr 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Apr 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $25 +$15 +60%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $19 +$11 +59%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 25 $22 +$11 +52%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 23 $28 +$9 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $40 +$84 +212%
Utah vs. Stars Mar 17 $35 +$48 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 29m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 20h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 24h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $138 36h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 44h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 47h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $15 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 17d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 23d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.97 · official $137.97 (match) · 278 history records