Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f00…50f2 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$226 (-11%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$638
7 days−$638
14 days−$762
30 days−$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$638
sports 29% −$196
other 2% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -42.7% -48.2% 50% 25% -52.1%
≤30d 18 -34.1% -40.4% 44% 28% -47.6%
≤90d 20 -40.7% -46.3% 40% 25% -49.5%
all 20 -40.7% -46.3% 40% 25% -49.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 25% -49.5%
10% -51.5% 20% -54.3%
15% -56.1% 10% -58.7%
20% -60.4% 10% -62.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$98 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage55d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $238 −$235 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $235 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $267 −$267 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $91 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $90 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $92 +$31 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$15 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $100 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $98 +$218 +223%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $34 +$26 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $32 −$32 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $238 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $239 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $235 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $267 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $100 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 30¢ $50 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 40¢ $100 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $99 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $316 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 30¢ $98 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $60 14d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $61 15d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $34 16d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY BetBoom Team 29¢ $40 42d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records