Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
7E 0x7efe…2e32 sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,331 (+5%) realized +$15,909 · open −$578
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$8,422per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$607est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$48,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,349
7 days+$10,811
14 days+$12,058
30 days+$12,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$6,853
sports 42% +$4,904
world 3% −$278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.8% -7.0% 76% 30% -5.3%
≤30d 34 +61.6% +46.2% 76% 32% -5.3%
≤90d 34 +61.6% +46.2% 76% 32% -5.3%
all 34 +61.6% +46.2% 76% 32% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.2% 32% -5.3%
10% +32.2% 9% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here +19.4% 3% -22.6%
20% +7.7% 3% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$10,219) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +119% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$632 vs −$548 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$48,037
Realized+$15,909
Unrealized−$578
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$607
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage8d
Avg bet$8,422
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $14,750 $17,345 +$2,595 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $14,750 $12,533 −$2,217 (-15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $11,243 $11,205 −$38 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $5,578 $4,821 −$757 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2,294 $2,133 −$161 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,192 +$50 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9,997 +$500 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10,729 +$916 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Whitney Osuigwe Jun 23 $10,001 +$746 +8%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $5,299 −$444 -8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Priscilla Hon vs Nao Hibino Jun 23 $11,314 +$964 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yexin Ma vs Erika Andreeva Jun 23 $23 +$1 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sayaka Ishii Jun 23 $11,411 +$346 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Susan Bandecchi Jun 23 $4,318 −$278 -6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $287 +$76 +27%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,833 −$1,043 -37%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11,678 +$972 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2,059 +$448 +22%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $6,027 −$610 -10%
Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Jones Jun 22 $4,823 +$628 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Francesca Jones Jun 22 $2,343 +$4 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $5,032 +$926 +18%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10,219 −$855 -8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,269 −$64 -1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10,061 +$639 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10,110 −$278 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,846 +$934 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20,945 +$736 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $10,478 +$1,010 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $9,710 +$280 +3%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $9,277 +$507 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10,469 +$1,231 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8,929 +$1,518 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,668 +$575 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $893 +$107 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $737 +$157 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,073 +$922 +23%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $815 −$810 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7,523 +$1,247 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $179 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $153 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $4,617 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $4,642 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $403 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6,332 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $655 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $48 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $480 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2,071 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $4,717 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $11 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $771 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $1,607 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $3,381 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $985 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,409 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $769 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5,220 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $5,991 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $9,997 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $10,278 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,223 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $94 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $8,825 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1,904 8h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Whitney Osuigwe SELL Maria Timofeeva 93¢ $10,747 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48,036.88 · official $48,036.88 (match) · 284 history records