Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ef6…461b other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$14
other 24% −$15
politics 16% −$6
world 11% −$6
economics 8% −$3
crypto 6% −$2
culture 3% −$1
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 99 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage164d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 28 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 03 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 03 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 03 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $317 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 03 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $790 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 03 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 03 $540 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 03 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $151 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $391 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $165 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $656 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $338 −$1 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $170 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $170 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $641 −$2 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $348 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $47 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $47 5h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $46 12d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $46 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 90¢ $46 25d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $47 25d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $62 38d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $62 38d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $144 111d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $144 111d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $150 111d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $150 111d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 97¢ $148 111d
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $148 111d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $155 111d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $156 111d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $151 111d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $151 111d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 93¢ $159 111d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 93¢ $159 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $158 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $158 111d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $152 111d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $152 111d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $156 111d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $156 111d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $152 111d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $153 111d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $155 111d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $155 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 429 history records