Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ef0…aa6c other 23 markets active 1d ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-60%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%3W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$73
sports 8% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +62.2% +46.8% 14% 14% -24.7%
≤30d 14 +62.2% +46.8% 14% 14% -24.7%
≤90d 22 +16.5% +5.4% 14% 14% -65.4%
all 22 +16.5% +5.4% 14% 14% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.4% 14% -65.4%
10% -4.7% 14% -68.7%
15% -13.9% 14% -71.7%
20% -22.4% 14% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late +106% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses3 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1845%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $5 +$8 +150%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $6 6d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $2 66d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 66d
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $2 66d
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $5 66d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 66d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $4 66d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 66d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $25 67d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $10 67d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $5 67d
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $1 67d
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $5 67d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 31¢ $5 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.71 · official $1.71 (match) · 32 history records