Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eef…3aef crypto 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$86 (-2%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%124W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$65
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.5% -15.4% 80% 45% -18.5%
≤30d 44 -10.6% -19.1% 73% 39% -24.0%
≤90d 173 -6.2% -15.1% 71% 44% -14.9%
all 175 -5.8% -14.7% 71% 44% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 44% -14.8%
10% -22.9% 25% -23.0%
15% -30.3% 15% -30.4%
20% -37.2% 11% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses124 / 51
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage107d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$40 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 22 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 22 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 22 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 20 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 20 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 20 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 20 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 20 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 20 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 20 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 25 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $73 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $31 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records