Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7eee…d930 crypto 424 markets active 3d ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,250 (-12%) realized −$14,250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%240W / 184L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$115est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4,496
14 days−$10,559
30 days−$9,251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$7,510
other 32% −$6,638
sports 24% −$1,403
tech 1% +$12
finance 0% +$14
world 0% +$39
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -34.5% -40.8% 37% 31% -31.0%
≤30d 70 -30.7% -37.3% 39% 34% -35.9%
≤90d 131 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 39% -34.4%
all 424 -3.9% -13.0% 57% 44% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 44% -21.4%
10% -21.3% 37% -28.9%
15% -28.9% 29% -35.8%
20% -35.9% 23% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$250 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses240 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$115
Open positions0
Markets (closed)424 / 424
History coverage244d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 424 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $64 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $598 +$122 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $267 −$260 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $262 +$556 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $410 −$410 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,013 −$1,013 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $561 −$561 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $634 −$634 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $802 −$802 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $565 −$565 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $408 +$167 +41%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $891 −$891 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $576 −$576 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,530 +$2,690 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $413 +$151 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $303 −$303 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $743 −$743 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $739 −$739 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $384 −$384 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $424 −$424 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $454 −$454 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1,143 +$1,389 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $414 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $316 +$679 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $207 +$58 +28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2,450 +$729 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $106 +$41 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$10 +25%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 06 $13 +$27 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $522 −$29 -6%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $646 −$646 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $627 −$627 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $801 −$801 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $454 −$454 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $368 −$368 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $526 −$526 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $527 −$527 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $64 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $181 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $60 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $60 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2205 history records