Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eee…7ed4 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$27 (-9%) realized −$33 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$19
sports 18% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +20.5% +9.0% 56% 39% -45.4%
≤30d 18 +20.5% +9.0% 56% 39% -45.4%
≤90d 18 +20.5% +9.0% 56% 39% -45.4%
all 18 +20.5% +9.0% 56% 39% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 39% -45.4%
10% -1.4% 28% -50.6%
15% -10.9% 22% -55.4%
20% -19.7% 17% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 88¢ $27 $33 +$6 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$20 -71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$3 +283%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +505%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $201 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $199 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 39h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 93¢ $8 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 57¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 67¢ $5 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $1 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 30¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 20¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 3¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $1 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 44¢ $4 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 11¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 100¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 68¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 98¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 38¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $2 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 6¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 96¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.86 · official $32.48 (match) · 50 history records