Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eec…03b0 sports 500 markets active 7h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized −$22 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate29%143W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$16
crypto 33% −$22
other 11% +$7
world 4% −$5
finance 0% +$4
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.2% -15.1% 50% 50% -15.4%
≤30d 27 +1.6% -8.1% 52% 52% -8.4%
≤90d 461 -1.6% -11.0% 26% 18% -19.1%
all 492 +1.6% -8.1% 29% 22% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 22% -11.9%
10% -16.9% 17% -20.3%
15% -24.9% 14% -28.0%
20% -32.3% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses143 / 349
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)492 / 500
History coverage171d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 23¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 28¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +239%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +116%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 +$4 +84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6 +$1 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 −$2 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar May 10 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $5 $0 +6%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $5 +$6 +124%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $5 +$6 +112%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 28 $1 +$1 +89%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 Apr 28 $1 +$1 +113%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Apr 28 $1 +$1 +83%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 207.5 Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6h
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 10h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $5 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $5 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $5 24h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 76¢ $3 25h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 76¢ $3 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 23¢ $5 38h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $3 42h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $5 45h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $6 46h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 56¢ $5 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $5 47h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $0 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.88 · official $12.88 (match) · 1532 history records