Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7ee9…2338 crypto 1112 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,276 (-9%) realized −$6,239 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate62%686W / 425L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$792
7 days−$792
14 days−$792
30 days−$991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$5,011
weather 0% +$3
sports 0% −$49
world 0% −$12
politics 0% −$10
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -29.4% -36.1% 51% 46% -35.3%
≤30d 201 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 47% -26.4%
≤90d 935 -12.9% -21.2% 61% 35% -20.9%
all 1111 -12.2% -20.6% 62% 35% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 35% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 24% -23.9%
15% -35.1% 15% -31.3%
20% -41.5% 11% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$39 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$6,239
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses686 / 425
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1111 / 1112
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 42¢ 4¢ $41 $4 −$37 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$18 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $142 −$135 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$23 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $266 −$120 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $160 −$50 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $174 −$91 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $449 −$239 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $479 +$128 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $146 −$90 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$76 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $303 −$128 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $66 +$35 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$78 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $256 +$81 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $181 −$174 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $80 −$76 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$15 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 29 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $14 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 26 $7 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 26 $15 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $34 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $84 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $9 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $17 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $59 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.42 · official $1.47 · 3500 history records