Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7ee9…7d37 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$2,670 (+90%) realized +$2,609 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$501
7 days−$432
14 days−$500
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,140
politics 30% +$1,290
world 7% +$137
sports 2% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+67.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -61.6% -65.3% 7% 7% -44.5%
≤30d 27 -3.3% -12.5% 22% 22% +0.1%
≤90d 36 +85.5% +67.9% 33% 31% +68.8%
all 36 +85.5% +67.9% 33% 31% +68.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +67.9% 31% +68.8%
10% +51.8% 31% +52.6%
15% +37.1% 31% +37.9%
20% +23.7% 31% +24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +223% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$298 vs −$47 · ×6.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$2,609
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage51d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 29¢ 50¢ $82 $140 +$58 (+71%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $79 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $99 −$91 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $187 −$35 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 22 $155 −$69 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be less than 25 points? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Norway come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $33 −$31 -92%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $180 +$146 +81%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$47 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $31 −$21 -67%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 19 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $134 +$89 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $73 −$6 -8%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 15 $104 −$97 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $188 −$54 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $104 +$396 +381%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 05 $16 −$15 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $104 −$62 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $83 +$253 +304%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, Jun 02 $103 +$115 +112%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June May 31 $83 −$69 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $52 +$240 +462%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 2 May 26 $41 −$39 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $83 −$76 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $84 +$878 +1049%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 20 $52 +$259 +496%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 1 May 16 $83 −$78 -94%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 May 15 $104 +$398 +382%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2 May 12 $52 +$658 +1258%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12 May 09 $83 +$5 +6%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, May 08 $52 +$140 +268%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $76 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $48 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 27h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June BUY Yes 33¢ $51 28h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June BUY Yes 25¢ $5 28h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June BUY Yes 24¢ $23 28h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 19 to June BUY Yes 23¢ $5 28h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $72 29h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 40h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 40h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 47h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 47h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $62 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $80 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $83 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.29 · official $193.29 (match) · 108 history records