Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee7…17b0 world 82 markets active 2d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18,614 (-19%) realized −$18,658 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 45L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,165per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$439est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days−$1,998
14 days−$1,990
30 days−$1,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$12,225
sports 28% −$6,833
economics 3% +$945
finance 1% −$809
politics 1% −$63
tech 0% −$36
other 0% −$108
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -32.6% -39.1% 29% 14% -21.4%
≤30d 23 -30.3% -36.9% 35% 17% -18.1%
≤90d 69 -28.3% -35.1% 38% 26% -29.3%
all 74 -26.4% -33.4% 39% 26% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 26% -28.8%
10% -39.8% 15% -35.6%
15% -45.6% 9% -41.8%
20% -50.9% 7% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$1,205) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$311 vs −$627 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$4,270
Realized−$18,658
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$439
Open positions8
Markets (closed)74 / 82
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,165
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 56¢ $1,609 $2,053 +$445 (+28%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $1,060 $1,182 +$122 (+11%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $430 $348 −$83 (-19%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $363 $321 −$42 (-11%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $316 $216 −$100 (-32%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $210 $95 −$115 (-55%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $186 $28 −$158 (-85%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $53 $27 −$25 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $310 +$130 +42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,196 −$1,138 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $140 −$69 -50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $330 +$2 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $27 −$26 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $233 +$22 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $853 −$209 -24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,205 −$802 -67%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $170 −$4 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $750 −$140 -19%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $133 −$63 -47%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $180 −$29 -16%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 11 $2,427 +$372 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $518 −$60 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 09 $276 +$45 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $557 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $670 +$69 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $142 +$98 +70%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 20 $160 −$40 -25%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 15 $195 −$93 -47%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? May 15 $172 −$137 -80%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $3,230 −$2,323 -72%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 09 $1,200 −$200 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 08 $407 −$40 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1,977 +$121 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $3,215 −$1,632 -51%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $15 +$30 +194%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 07 $847 −$151 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $594 +$33 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 06 $2,945 −$2,945 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $2,834 +$945 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $957 +$34 +4%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 06 $456 −$456 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 30 $2,913 −$2,271 -78%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Apr 29 $845 −$75 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Apr 29 $140 −$140 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 27 $140 +$30 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 27 $340 +$50 +15%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $100 −$99 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 27 $6,543 −$1,810 -28%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 27 $288 −$288 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,296 −$22 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $108 +$12 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 22¢ $440 46h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 1¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 1¢ $58 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 1¢ $38 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $71 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $143 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $0 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 14¢ $140 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 29¢ $283 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $332 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 5¢ $27 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 74¢ $255 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $658 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $644 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $611 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $170 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $31 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $166 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $85 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $330 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,270.46 · official $4,270.46 (match) · 876 history records