Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee6…6eb1 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,099 (-7%) realized −$1,100 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate74%32W / 11L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$6
14 days−$1,147
30 days−$1,265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$1,206
other 18% +$3
politics 6% +$53
sports 2% $0
finance 2% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.3% -19.8% 86% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 41 -19.9% -27.5% 73% 17% -20.0%
≤90d 43 -18.0% -25.8% 74% 19% -18.5%
all 43 -18.0% -25.8% 74% 19% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 19% -18.5%
10% -32.9% 5% -26.3%
15% -39.4% 0% -33.4%
20% -45.3% 0% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$160 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$1,100
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses32 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage42d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 27 $122 +$3 +2%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 Jun 26 $543 +$28 +5%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $189 +$5 +3%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $351 +$10 +3%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $543 +$35 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,234 +$16 +1%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $180 +$13 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $141 +$15 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,446 +$32 +2%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 18 $67 +$3 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $391 +$7 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $265 +$9 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $144 −$27 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,067 −$681 -64%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $168 −$168 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $69 +$12 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $186 +$13 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $94 +$4 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $360 +$21 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $177 −$177 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $189 +$11 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $577 +$18 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $196 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $196 +$4 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 02 $98 +$16 +16%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $139 +$41 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $181 +$14 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $222 +$18 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $292 +$51 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $399 +$57 +14%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? May 31 $242 +$17 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $146 −$103 -70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $86 +$13 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $400 +$122 +30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $99 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 100¢ $25 33m
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 35m
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 97¢ $24 37m
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $120 42m
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $24 47m
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $294 3h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $302 6h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $5 6h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $2 7h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $18 8h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $24 8h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $17 8h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $30 8h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL No 97¢ $107 9h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 98¢ $2 9h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $157 10h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 10h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $83 10h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 11h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $291 11h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $294 12h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $291 13h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $291 15h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL No 97¢ $51 16h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 SELL No 97¢ $47 16h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $288 16h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $288 17h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $266 18h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.74 · official $154.74 (match) · 306 history records