Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee5…5e7d sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-10%) realized −$102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$47
other 27% −$7
politics 10% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +32.8% +20.2% 42% 40% -22.4%
≤30d 40 +32.8% +20.2% 42% 40% -22.4%
≤90d 40 +32.8% +20.2% 42% 40% -22.4%
all 40 +32.8% +20.2% 42% 40% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.2% 40% -22.4%
10% +8.7% 40% -29.9%
15% -1.8% 38% -36.6%
20% -11.5% 35% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions7
Markets (closed)40 / 47
History coverage7d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$8 +30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $77 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +56%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $56 +$33 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 −$12 -26%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +246%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$14 -46%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$36 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$17 -82%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$22 +217%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$4 -69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $23 +$12 +50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +248%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +595%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $7 +$45 +631%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 +$13 +408%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $99 −$63 -63%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$9 -75%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 −$10 -72%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $100 4h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $34 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 6h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 92¢ $76 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $77 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $70 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 8h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 10h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 11h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $2 11h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $26 22h
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 25h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 27h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.73 · official $175.74 (match) · 103 history records