Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7ee3…02d5 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%17W / 7L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$18
politics 34% +$3
tech 11% −$2
sports 2% +$7
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.6% -5.4% 100% 0% -5.3%
≤30d 5 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 0% -4.2%
≤90d 24 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 0% -9.2%
all 24 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 0% -9.2%
10% -16.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$810) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.47 per $1 lost it wins $7.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses17 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage140d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Philippines vs. Guam end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$1 +5%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $20 +$1 +6%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5) May 24 $9 +$1 +7%
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5 May 24 $12 +$1 +7%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31? Apr 01 $838 +$3 +0%
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Mar 31 $115 $0 +0%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) Mar 30 $13 +$1 +6%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-1.5) Mar 30 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 30 $4 $0 +3%
Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5) Mar 30 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Mar 30 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e Mar 29 $790 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? Mar 29 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $853 +$3 +0%
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Mar 29 $854 +$4 +0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 29 $826 +$1 +0%
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series Mar 29 $232 +$3 +1%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 29 $806 +$9 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? Mar 29 $829 +$1 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Mar 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? Mar 29 $810 −$2 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Mar 29 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $14 14h
Will Philippines vs. Guam end in a draw? BUY No 95¢ $17 12d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 21d
CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $12 29d
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5) BUY TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 93¢ $9 58d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL Yes $46 77d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY Yes $45 77d
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e SELL No 95¢ $680 77d
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e SELL No 95¢ $109 77d
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary e BUY No 95¢ $790 77d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? SELL Yes $18 77d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? SELL Yes $11 77d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? BUY Yes $29 77d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? SELL No 92¢ $158 77d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? SELL No 92¢ $697 77d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? BUY No 92¢ $270 77d
Will the Utah Mammoth win the Western Conference? BUY No 92¢ $583 77d
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 95¢ $858 77d
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 94¢ $273 77d
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 94¢ $581 77d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $310 77d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $518 77d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $651 77d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $176 77d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL Yes $36 77d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL Yes $125 77d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series SELL Yes $73 77d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY Yes $35 77d
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY Yes $124 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.32 · official $14.32 (match) · 72 history records