Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ee0…bc39 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-2%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$70
14 days−$71
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$82
sports 12% −$7
economics 10% +$2
world 1% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.8% -44.7% 20% 0% -24.0%
≤30d 16 -12.2% -20.6% 6% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 68 -6.2% -15.1% 29% 9% -10.9%
all 68 -6.2% -15.1% 29% 9% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 9% -10.9%
10% -23.2% 4% -19.5%
15% -30.6% 3% -27.2%
20% -37.4% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage86d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $143 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $133 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $142 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $324 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $78 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $60 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 09 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $252 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $84 $0 -0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $4 $0 +9%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? May 02 $4 +$4 +89%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? May 01 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $154 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $162 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $358 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $100 $0 -0%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $99 $0 -0%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Apr 11 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $70 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $69 46h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 46h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $73 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $73 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 9d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 9d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 17d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 17d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $74 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $74 24d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 24d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.60 · official $8.60 (match) · 242 history records