Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7E 0x7edc…56ea crypto 323 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%308W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$11
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$30
politics 3% +$4
finance 2% −$18
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 316 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 316 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.2%
all 316 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 1% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses308 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)316 / 323
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.35 · official $136.35 (match) · 639 history records