Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7edc…a54a crypto 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized +$33 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +217% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +165% what you keep after slip
Net edge+165%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$3
crypto 21% +$51
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+187.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +217.3% +187.0% 67% 67% +103.6%
≤30d 3 +217.3% +187.0% 67% 67% +103.6%
≤90d 3 +217.3% +187.0% 67% 67% +103.6%
all 3 +217.3% +187.0% 67% 67% +103.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +187.0% 67% +103.6%
10% +159.6% 67% +84.1%
15% +134.5% 67% +66.3%
20% +111.5% 67% +50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +125% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +217% · $-wt +125% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$11 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.09 per $1 lost it wins $4.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 5¢ 23¢ $5 $23 +$18 (+360%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$36 +682%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.09 · official $172.09 (match) · 18 history records