Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7eda…4bb7 sports 1231 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 528d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29,408 (-10%) realized −$29,464 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%581W / 647L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$674est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$464
7 days−$804
14 days−$9,566
30 days−$1,520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$15,881
other 18% −$6,910
politics 2% +$61
world 1% −$389
crypto 1% −$899
tech 0% +$427
culture 0% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -40.7% -46.3% 33% 33% -28.6%
≤30d 121 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 39% -14.7%
≤90d 317 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 51% -9.4%
all 1228 -6.2% -15.1% 47% 46% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 46% -16.5%
10% -23.2% 46% -24.5%
15% -30.7% 44% -31.8%
20% -37.5% 39% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$229 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized−$29,464
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses581 / 647
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$674
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1228 / 1231
History coverage529d ⚠
Avg bet$249
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 27¢ $264 $372 +$108 (+41%)
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Karmine Corp 60¢ 60¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $101 $52 −$49 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $483 +$550 +114%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Jun 29 $649 −$547 -84%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 29 $437 +$147 +34%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $486 +$313 +64%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $87 −$87 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $179 −$176 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $203 +$167 +82%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 26 $52 −$41 -80%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $114 +$84 +73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $212 −$207 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $172 −$170 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $440 −$435 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $284 +$216 +76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $468 +$211 +45%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $291 −$291 -100%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 22 $247 −$247 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 22 $515 −$515 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $152 −$152 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) Jun 22 $124 −$124 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 22 $236 −$236 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 22 $279 −$279 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 22 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 22 $148 −$148 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 22 $147 −$147 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 22 $224 −$224 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Jun 22 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? Jun 22 $401 −$401 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $381 −$381 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $152 −$152 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 22 $133 −$133 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 22 $228 −$228 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 22 $121 −$121 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $244 −$244 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 22 $261 −$261 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $360 −$360 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 22 $179 −$179 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 22 $481 −$481 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Karmine Corp 60¢ $304 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $483 13h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 13h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 20h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) SELL T1 92¢ $584 21h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 23h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 24h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL Yes 60¢ $75 25h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 25h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? SELL Yes 60¢ $21 25h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 68¢ $437 27h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 83¢ $125 27h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 56¢ $169 45h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 55¢ $83 45h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) SELL T1 100¢ $799 45h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $486 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 43¢ $109 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $87 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $179 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $370 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 57¢ $114 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $89 4d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 30¢ $77 4d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 16¢ $59 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $123 4d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 15¢ $37 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $172 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 28¢ $200 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.93 · official $720.93 (match) · 3500 history records