Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7E 0x7ed5…20f1 sports 7 markets active 11h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$238 (+65%) realized +$238 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$172
other 32% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +36.9% +23.8% 71% 71% +47.5%
≤30d 7 +36.9% +23.8% 71% 71% +47.5%
≤90d 7 +36.9% +23.8% 71% 71% +47.5%
all 7 +36.9% +23.8% 71% 71% +47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.8% 71% +47.5%
10% +12.0% 71% +33.4%
15% +1.2% 57% +20.5%
20% -8.8% 43% +8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$5 · ×9.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.84 per $1 lost it wins $23.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$238
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $59 +$70 +119%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$4 +30%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$61 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $118 +$60 +51%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$1 -7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $9 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $59 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $19 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $112 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $178 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $14 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $118 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 92¢ $148 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 62¢ $101 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records