Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7ed5…e13c crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate62%85W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$7
other 37% −$6
politics 11% −$2
world 5% −$7
tech 3% +$1
finance 2% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +86.4% +68.6% 100% 50% -6.7%
≤30d 13 +4.8% -5.2% 77% 15% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 7% -9.6%
all 136 -0.7% -10.2% 62% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 7% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 7% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses85 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage105d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $395 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 26 $2 +$4 +172%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 2? Jun 26 $145 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $122 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28? May 30 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 30 $130 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 28 $2 +$4 +188%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? May 28 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $153 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $166 −$7 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $165 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $655 −$1 -0%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $158 $0 -0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $87.50 Week of May 18 2 May 23 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 21 $166 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 19 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $163 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs GamerLegion (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $153 Week of May 11 May 16 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $167 $0 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 14 $167 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $167 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $166 $0 +0%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $160 $0 -0%
Unics Kazan vs. BC Zenit May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 10? May 11 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 10 $169 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 09 $160 $0 -0%
Will Albania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 09 $160 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $169 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on May 7? May 08 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 5? May 07 $168 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4? May 05 $168 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 3? May 04 $156 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 2? May 03 $129 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,550 on May 2? May 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $695 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $168 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $395 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $145 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 25d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $122 26d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $4 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 27d
Will Google have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $130 28d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $138 29d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Xiyu Wang 34¢ $2 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $153 31d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $5 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 96¢ $159 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $166 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $165 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $165 34d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $160 34d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 12¢ $1 34d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $160 34d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $158 34d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $158 34d
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $87.50 Week of May 18 2 BUY No 100¢ $167 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $166 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $166 37d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 39d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $150 39d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $2 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.08 · official $152.08 (match) · 268 history records