Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7ed4…3abd sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+11%) realized +$322 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$199
other 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +26.5% +14.5% 79% 64% +1.6%
≤30d 33 +26.5% +14.5% 79% 64% +1.6%
≤90d 33 +26.5% +14.5% 79% 64% +1.6%
all 33 +26.5% +14.5% 79% 64% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.5% 64% +1.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.5% 42% -8.1%
15% -6.5% 24% -17.0%
20% -15.7% 15% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$322
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 57¢ $253 $182 −$71 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $127 +$13 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $118 +$7 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $250 −$17 -7%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $105 +$12 +11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $121 +$29 +24%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $27 +$3 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $75 −$12 -16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $135 +$15 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $87 +$28 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $65 +$10 +15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 +$4 +15%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $84 +$2 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $120 +$30 +25%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $141 +$25 +18%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$38 +37%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $77 +$26 +33%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +300%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $39 +$10 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $35 −$32 -92%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$7 -84%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $29 +$50 +170%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $45 +$20 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $35 −$20 -58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +82%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$1 -36%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $7 +$2 +25%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +51%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +257%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 6¢ $1 31m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 6¢ $0 31m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $266 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $140 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $125 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $16 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $4 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $37 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $49 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 77¢ $70 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 77¢ $8 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $19 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $118 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $117 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $146 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $3 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $150 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 90¢ $105 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $41 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $44 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 85¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $35 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $40 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $6 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $20 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $121 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.76 · official $181.76 (match) · 125 history records