Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7ed3…27aa
world · 80 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$36 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$104
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Open positions34
Markets (closed)46 / 80
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 34 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$7
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 74¢ 70¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 24¢ 26¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 73¢ 70¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 57¢ 49¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 38¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No 96¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 76¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 36¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? No 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 85¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 80¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 07 $15 −$5 -34%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $4 $0 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +5%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +5%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $55 +$1 +1%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $22 $0 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -88%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -81%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $8 −$5 -56%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 29 $5 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $4 −$1 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $19 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -80%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $3 −$2 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $13 −$3 -20%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -12%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 25 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 74% −$28
politics 12% −$3
other 12% −$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 24¢ $1 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 73¢ $4 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 73¢ $4 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 57¢ $3 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $2 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $4 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $2 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 5h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 33¢ $2 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? SELL No 61¢ $3 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 82¢ $4 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 38% -16.2%
≤30d 46 -23.5% -30.8% 59% 9% -14.9%
≤90d 46 -23.5% -30.8% 59% 9% -14.9%
all 46 -23.5% -30.8% 59% 9% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 9% -14.9%
10% -37.4% 4% -23.0%
15% -43.5% 0% -30.5%
20% -49.0% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.47 · official $103.87 (match) · 255 history records