Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7ed3…e34b politics 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$148 (+66%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$148
politics 10% $0
other 4% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 11 +9.1% -1.3% 36% 9% +50.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 9% +50.8%
10% -10.7% 9% +36.4%
15% -19.3% 9% +23.2%
20% -27.2% 9% +11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage124d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 16? Apr 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 20? Mar 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Feb 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Feb 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 Feb 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66? Feb 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Yōko Kamikawa be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2 Feb 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026 Feb 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3AM ET Feb 12 $148 +$148 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $21 87d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $2 116d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $1 117d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $0 118d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $1 118d
Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the SELL Yes $2 119d
Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY Yes $2 119d
Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 SELL Yes $4 119d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $3 119d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $1 119d
Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 BUY Yes $4 120d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $0 120d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $2 120d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes $1 120d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $2 120d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes $1 120d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66? SELL Yes $2 120d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66? SELL Yes $1 120d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66? BUY Yes $3 120d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66? SELL Yes $3 120d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66? BUY Yes $3 120d
Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 SELL Yes $5 121d
Will Taro Kono be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 BUY Yes $5 121d
Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the SELL Yes $1 121d
Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the BUY Yes $1 121d
Will Fumitake Fujita be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the SELL Yes $1 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.91 · official $2.92 (match) · 48 history records