Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7ed2…41fb crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+1%) realized +$257 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%62W / 4L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$64
economics 13% +$36
finance 12% +$37
other 10% +$42
politics 6% $0
world 4% +$54
tech 3% +$10
sports 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 66 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 6% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -8.7%
10% -16.8% 0% -17.4%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$656) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.77 per $1 lost it wins $8.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$1,065
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses62 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage266d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $879 $879 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $188 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 26 $1,066 +$3 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $371 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1,390 +$21 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $264 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 27 $459 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 26 $929 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 19 $1,380 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 06 $134 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $160 +$4 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 06 $1,051 +$31 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $132 +$3 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 30 $1,339 +$3 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 27 $650 +$8 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 25 $675 +$6 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $669 −$18 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $656 +$13 +2%
Penguins vs. Avalanche Mar 17 $666 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on March 17? Mar 15 $655 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 9-15? Mar 14 $654 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $649 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 02 $234 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 27 $415 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 25 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of February? Feb 25 $121 +$3 +3%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Feb 24 $409 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 23 $337 +$4 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 21 $65 +$3 +4%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 11 $345 −$8 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $260 +$35 +13%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jan 14 $338 +$7 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $29 +$4 +14%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Dec 30 $303 +$2 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 29 $256 +$47 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $257 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 12 $248 +$9 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 27 $200 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $140 end of November? Nov 27 $53 +$1 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 06 $32 −$6 -19%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,600 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 1? Nov 02 $242 +$5 +2%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Nov 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 31 $236 +$1 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $5 $0 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $10 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 28 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 27? Oct 28 $11 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? BUY No 100¢ $188 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 98¢ $880 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,066 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $266 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $800 10d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $265 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $148 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $119 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $264 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $207 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $2 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $10 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $2 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $41 21d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $241 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $106 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $106 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $71 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $35 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $1,390 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $460 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $930 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $929 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $459 35d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $1,388 39d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1,380 52d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $134 62d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $112 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,065.20 · official $1,065.20 (match) · 208 history records