Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ed1…d1a5 crypto 584 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$68 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate60%346W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$52
other 34% −$158
sports 14% +$89
world 2% +$17
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.0% -6.8% 69% 62% -5.1%
≤30d 28 -3.4% -12.6% 64% 57% -12.3%
≤90d 212 -28.5% -35.3% 39% 33% -26.3%
all 577 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 42% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 42% -9.4%
10% -21.8% 25% -18.1%
15% -29.3% 14% -26.0%
20% -36.3% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses346 / 231
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)577 / 584
History coverage152d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$12 +43%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$7 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $18 +$3 +16%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $24 +$3 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $13 +$2 +12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 +$7 +125%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 −$3 -54%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $4 +$3 +59%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $10 −$6 -56%
Mexico vs. Serbia: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $6 −$5 -99%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $20 +$5 +26%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Australia win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $13 −$13 -99%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? May 30 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $20 −$20 -99%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 +$4 +118%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $12 +$4 +34%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) May 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 $0 +4%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 14 $9 +$6 +61%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 14 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $2 +$4 +218%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $21 +$4 +21%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $17 +$5 +27%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 +$1 +64%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to Score May 10 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $16 −$6 -36%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 10 $4 −$1 -26%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $13 +$8 +57%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $9 +$4 +43%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $5 +$4 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 12m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 12m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 25m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 35m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 42m
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $3 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 73¢ $24 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $21 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 86¢ $18 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $18 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $9 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 47¢ $9 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 72¢ $15 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $7 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $36 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $16 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Czechia 98¢ $16 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Czechia 89¢ $15 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $13 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $13 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.56 · official $90.56 (match) · 2017 history records