Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7E 0x7ed1…3363 weather 925 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-0%) realized −$336 · open +$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%813W / 79L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$12,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 61% −$2,451
world 18% +$2
sports 10% −$13
finance 5% +$128
other 4% −$3
crypto 1% +$12
tech 1% +$25
politics 1% +$30
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.0% -13.2% 78% 22% -7.1%
≤30d 37 -4.8% -13.8% 81% 19% -9.2%
≤90d 855 -3.1% -12.3% 91% 5% -11.5%
all 892 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 6% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -11.5%
10% -20.5% 2% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 1% -27.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$62 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$12,061
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$245
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses813 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions33
Markets (closed)892 / 925
History coverage107d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 892 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $3,300 $3,469 +$169 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,068 +$68 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,043 +$43 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,019 +$19 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $900 $907 +$7 (+1%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $500 $521 +$21 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 89¢ $400 $383 −$17 (-4%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 88¢ $400 $362 −$38 (-10%)
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 92¢ $300 $283 −$17 (-6%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 97¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will s1mple retire by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 96¢ 93¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $500 +$26 +5%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$54 -54%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $600 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,001 +$31 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,300 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $301 +$46 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $301 +$46 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $100 +$1 +2%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,001 +$33 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$85 -84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $202 +$131 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 Jun 11 $102 +$98 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$23 -23%
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $201 −$200 -100%
Will GamerLegion reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $800 +$5 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1,200 +$4 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $100 +$8 +8%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 14 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $900 42m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3,000 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $100 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $500 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $300 2h
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 BUY No 88¢ $100 2h
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 29h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 94¢ $98 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $500 37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $46 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 96¢ $100 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 97¢ $600 41h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 97¢ $1,001 41h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $100 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 89¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 87¢ $201 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 92¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 27¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 86¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,061.24 · official $12,059.66 (match) · 2108 history records