Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7E 0x7ed0…07e5 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL −$771 (-20%) realized −$695 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$392
7 days+$310
14 days+$310
30 days+$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$464
sports 30% −$252
world 5% −$78
crypto 2% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +29.8% +17.4% 60% 60% +30.0%
≤30d 15 +29.8% +17.4% 60% 60% +30.0%
≤90d 22 +5.9% -4.1% 50% 50% +8.0%
all 39 +24.0% +12.2% 38% 38% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 38% -22.9%
10% +1.4% 38% -30.3%
15% -8.4% 38% -37.0%
20% -17.4% 38% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$80 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$695
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage133d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 24¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Hapoel Tel-Aviv 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$99 +194%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$37 +93%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $61 +$69 +113%
John Stones: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists Jun 17 $50 −$48 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$50 +98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$82 +129%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$45 +89%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$50 +99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 May 04 $86 +$76 +89%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $122 −$99 -81%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $100 +$86 +86%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $80 −$73 -92%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $266 −$266 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $108 +$72 +66%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $112 −$4 -3%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $449 $0 -0%
Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 10 $199 −$199 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Mar 09 $199 −$199 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026? Mar 09 $204 −$78 -38%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-03-09? Mar 09 $201 −$201 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $204 +$373 +183%
Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5 Mar 08 $127 −$124 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $10 +$115 +1147%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Valencia Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $10 +$45 +447%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 52¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL 92¢ $150 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $51 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $76 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $130 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $40 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $10 24h
John Stones: 1+ assists BUY Yes 7¢ $10 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $51 24h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists BUY Yes 24¢ $50 28h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $51 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $101 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $119 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 39h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 43¢ $64 46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 47h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $32 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 49¢ $50 3d
AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $162 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.52 · official $24.99 · 74 history records