Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ecc…6c37 sports 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (147 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,084 (+0%) realized +$7,063 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate88%238W / 32L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$8,644per market
Trades / day147.5pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$736now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$18,387
other 18% +$385
crypto 1% +$86
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (147 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -6.6% -15.5% 84% 4% -9.5%
≤30d 270 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 270 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 5% -8.9%
all 270 -3.3% -12.5% 88% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover147.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 5% -8.9%
10% -20.9% 3% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -28.5% 3% -25.5%
20% -35.5% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$9,402) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$13 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×47.01 per $1 lost it wins $47.01
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$736
Realized+$7,063
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses238 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions42
Markets (closed)270 / 299
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$8,644
Trades / day147.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $78 $107 +$29 (+38%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $88 $85 −$4 (-4%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $35 $34 −$2 (-4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $34 $31 −$3 (-9%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-8%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
ByteDance IPO before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 93¢ $16 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 45¢ 62¢ $11 $16 +$4 (+38%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-16%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $15 −$10 -64%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $26,380 +$27 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31,968 +$32 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,980 +$20 +1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 27 $4,391 $0 -0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $22,087 +$27 +0%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $589 −$36 -6%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 27 $18,726 +$19 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-3.5) Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $87 $0 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 27 $273 $0 +0%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5) Jun 27 $897 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $197 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 27 $346 $0 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-4.5) Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Jun 27 $15 $0 +0%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $30,744 +$31 +0%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $867 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $228 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET Jun 26 $1,987 +$2 +0%
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $476 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs Endless Journey (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 26 $755 +$1 +0%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5,971 +$6 +0%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $5 +$7 +133%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $155 $0 +0%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $42,094 +$42 +0%
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $2,551 +$3 +0%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $6 $0 +5%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) Jun 26 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 20m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $8,020 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $511 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $336 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $330 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $156 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,713 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,697 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $164 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $119 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $6,963 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $736.13 · official $736.13 (match) · 3500 history records