Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:01:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ecb…52a5 crypto 317 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 306d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,715 (-13%) realized −$26,715 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate65%206W / 111L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$657per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1,255est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$429
14 days+$698
30 days+$1,498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$1,944
sports 44% −$17,608
other 8% −$2,175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -16.3% -24.3% 62% 38% -6.0%
≤30d 67 +3.7% -6.2% 70% 46% -3.9%
≤90d 199 -8.2% -16.9% 64% 38% -27.4%
all 317 -6.1% -15.0% 65% 37% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 37% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 21% -26.8%
15% -30.6% 11% -33.9%
20% -37.4% 5% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$580) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$347 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26,715
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses206 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,255
Open positions0
Markets (closed)317 / 317
History coverage307d ⚠
Avg bet$657
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 317 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $5,935 +$173 +3%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Team Novaq (BO3) - LG UltraGear To Jun 25 $27 −$19 -70%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $996 +$171 +17%
Valorant: Insomnia vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 25 $106 −$105 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $2,242 +$23 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $363 +$40 +11%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $119 −$87 -73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $323 +$176 +54%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $203 −$92 -45%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $209 +$70 +34%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $847 +$67 +8%
Plovdiv: Dinko Dinev vs Dali Blanch Jun 23 $105 +$51 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$38 -74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $173 −$103 -59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $241 +$25 +10%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $154 −$105 -68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $191 +$103 +54%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $106 +$160 +151%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$79 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 +$43 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $229 +$658 +287%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $163 +$58 +36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $444 −$274 -62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $305 +$141 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $517 −$509 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $208 −$207 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $189 +$21 +11%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $201 −$14 -7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $259 +$16 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $68 +$14 +21%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $21 +$2 +10%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $139 +$54 +39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $194 +$76 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $173 +$25 +15%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $108 +$31 +29%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $552 +$50 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $952 +$227 +24%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 10 $56 +$14 +24%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $229 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $218 −$2 -1%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $227 +$20 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $132 +$25 +19%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $256 +$35 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $68 +$26 +39%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $11 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $306 +$78 +26%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $103 −$102 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 95¢ $18 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 95¢ $54 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 95¢ $8 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 95¢ $125 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 95¢ $98 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 95¢ $49 42m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 87¢ $637 44m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 87¢ $115 44m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 87¢ $99 44m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 87¢ $44 47m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 87¢ $69 48m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 87¢ $21 48m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 83¢ $517 50m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 83¢ $261 50m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 83¢ $83 50m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 83¢ $78 51m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 89¢ $117 53m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 89¢ $117 54m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 89¢ $96 54m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 83¢ $84 56m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 83¢ $33 56m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 83¢ $89 56m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 74¢ $19 57m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 74¢ $18 57m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 74¢ $18 57m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 74¢ $12 57m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 74¢ $18 57m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 74¢ $98 57m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 75¢ $1,180 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 72¢ $1,133 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records