Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7ec9…8a86 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 52% -2.7%
≤30d 21 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 52% -2.7%
≤90d 21 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 52% -2.7%
all 21 +8.4% -1.9% 57% 52% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 52% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 43% -12.0%
15% -19.9% 38% -20.5%
20% -27.7% 38% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $1.29 (match) · 41 history records