Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ec6…5239 sports 338 markets active 2h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-0%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%17W / 320L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$37
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$13
politics 29% −$20
other 26% −$20
economics 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$38
world 3% −$9
culture 1% −$4
finance 1% −$2
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 78 -1.0% -10.4% 1% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 81 -1.0% -10.4% 1% 0% -10.3%
all 337 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses17 / 320
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)337 / 338
History coverage651d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $32 −$2 -7%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $124 −$2 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $43 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $276 −$2 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $112 −$6 -5%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $49 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $429 −$2 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 08 $51 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 08 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $119 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $128 −$2 -2%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $59 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $58 −$3 -6%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $60 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $58 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $128 −$2 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 02 $63 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 02 $65 −$3 -5%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $132 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $72 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $30 2h
Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 98¢ $32 10h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 11h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 19h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 24h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 25h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $37 29h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $42 29h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $43 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $44 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 42h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 42h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $38 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $44 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 3d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.21 · official $36.21 (match) · 1256 history records