Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ec6…1d80 sports 8 markets active 6d ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$8
other 25% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 8 -3.8% -13.0% 12% 0% -12.1%
≤90d 8 -3.8% -13.0% 12% 0% -12.1%
all 8 -3.8% -13.0% 12% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -12.1%
10% -21.3% 0% -20.5%
15% -28.9% 0% -28.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $182 −$9 -5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $114 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $81 −$2 -3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 29 $2 $0 -6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $6 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 80¢ $118 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 80¢ $95 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 20¢ $47 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $74 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 81¢ $16 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $17 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $6 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 82¢ $16 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $4 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $4 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 37¢ $4 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $19 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 62¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records