trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -15.6% | -23.6% | 38% | 12% | -39.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -15.6% | -23.6% | 38% | 12% | -39.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -15.6% | -23.6% | 38% | 12% | -39.0% |
| all | 8 | -15.6% | -23.6% | 38% | 12% | -39.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -23.6% | 12% | -39.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -30.9% | 0% | -44.8% |
| 15% | -37.6% | 0% | -50.2% |
| 20% | -43.7% | 0% | -55.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? | Yes | 36¢ | 36¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 29¢ | 18¢ | $4 | $2 | −$1 (-39%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | Jun 17 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri | Jun 16 | $21 | −$20 | -97% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 16 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 16 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Jun 16 | $5 | −$1 | -29% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 15 | $15 | −$3 | -17% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 15 | $5 | $0 | +0% |