Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ec1…e2e3 weather 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%37W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$32
14 days+$39
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$61
politics 21% −$4
weather 15% +$16
sports 14% +$3
world 10% −$16
tech 8% +$15
crypto 1% +$9
culture 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +19.6% +8.3% 67% 53% +1.4%
≤30d 61 -12.8% -21.1% 61% 36% -12.2%
≤90d 61 -12.8% -21.1% 61% 36% -12.2%
all 61 -12.8% -21.1% 61% 36% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 36% -12.2%
10% -28.6% 18% -20.6%
15% -35.5% 15% -28.3%
20% -41.8% 8% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$913
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses37 / 24
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions23
Markets (closed)61 / 84
History coverage29d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No 80¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 95¢ 92¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 89¢ 92¢ $64 $67 +$3 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 88¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 66¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-38 House seat? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? Yes 93¢ 87¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$28 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $21 −$7 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +49%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$20 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $34 −$33 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 +$1 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $31 +$9 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 +$12 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 +$6 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$14 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 03 $50 +$4 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $8 +$1 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $20 +$4 +19%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $30 $0 +2%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 29? May 30 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $55 −$13 -24%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $31 +$13 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $20 +$1 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $11 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $50 +$3 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot May 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $50 +$10 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will 1+ world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? May 25 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $91 +$8 +8%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 24 $109 +$6 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 23 $20 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 59¢ $25 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 38h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $47 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 93¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $22 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $913.49 · official $914.69 (match) · 236 history records