Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ec0…639e crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-5%) realized −$95 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day83.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$80
sports 35% −$84
other 4% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -20.2% -27.8% 25% 25% -14.2%
≤30d 55 -20.2% -27.8% 25% 25% -14.2%
≤90d 55 -20.2% -27.8% 25% 25% -14.2%
all 55 -20.2% -27.8% 25% 25% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 25% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 25% -22.4%
15% -41.1% 22% -29.9%
20% -46.8% 20% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$18 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)55 / 65
History coverage5d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day83.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Hamish Stewart 22¢ 40¢ $26 $49 +$22 (+85%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+155%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $56 +$19 +34%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $73 +$8 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$41 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$52 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$14 -43%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$47 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$36 +135%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$28 +120%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$43 +451%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$19 +61%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $111 −$98 -88%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $22 −$19 -87%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 −$9 -77%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +91%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$50 +119%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$47 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$3 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$185 +398%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$25 -80%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$85 +316%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$106 +457%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$11 -58%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$10 -73%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $21 +$50 +242%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $17 −$11 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Hamish Stewart 42¢ $2 6m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Hamish Stewart 42¢ $10 6m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Hamish Stewart 35¢ $2 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Hamish Stewart 30¢ $3 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart SELL Hamish Stewart 28¢ $2 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 19¢ $10 17m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 21¢ $7 20m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 24¢ $20 24m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $16 27m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 73¢ $12 38m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 71¢ $13 38m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 69¢ $3 41m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 66¢ $3 44m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $1 44m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $4 44m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 59¢ $3 44m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 55¢ $3 46m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $4 46m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 48¢ $4 46m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 44¢ $3 47m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 25¢ $2 51m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 25¢ $1 51m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 25¢ $2 51m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 24¢ $17 51m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 24¢ $1 52m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 24¢ $3 52m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 22¢ $11 52m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 20¢ $1 52m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 19¢ $2 52m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm SELL Mariella Thamm 20¢ $2 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.80 · official $72.60 · 413 history records