Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ec0…f1b8 other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 411d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$884 (+58%) realized +$891 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%19W / 78L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$332
7 days+$382
14 days+$1,249
30 days+$1,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$889
other 46% +$45
politics 4% −$57
tech 1% −$2
world 1% +$5
crypto 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +90.1% +72.0% 33% 33% +157.7%
≤30d 14 +109.4% +89.5% 36% 36% +232.8%
≤90d 15 +95.5% +76.9% 33% 33% +222.6%
all 97 -20.4% -28.0% 20% 18% +49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 18% +49.6%
10% -34.9% 15% +35.3%
15% -41.2% 14% +22.2%
20% -46.9% 12% +10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +256% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +65% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$12 · ×7.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

411d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$891
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses19 / 78
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)97 / 103
History coverage411d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $53 +$347 +650%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$140 +291%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $74 +$1,051 +1420%
Pelicans vs. Knicks Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $69 −$67 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Australian Open Women's: Maddison Inglis vs Iga Swiatek Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026? Feb 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Feb 09 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Feb 09 $85 −$85 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline Feb 09 $1 +$4 +376%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will 'Clair Obscur: Expedition 33' win Game of the Year in the 2025 St Jan 08 $2 +$4 +212%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: December Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grok be the next CEO of X? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Manager in 2025? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $154 end of December? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31? Jan 02 $1 +$1 +52%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Jan 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26? Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship? Dec 29 $1 +$2 +150%
Will Triveni Continental Kings win the 2025 Tech Mahindra Global Chess Dec 29 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 22 $21 −$21 -100%
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 19? Dec 22 $5 +$1 +20%
Memphis vs. North Carolina State Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Jets vs. Saints Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
VOOI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Stars vs. Sharks Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $44 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $43 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $34 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $53 32h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $15 43h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $48 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $34 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $26 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $34 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $35 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $74 9d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $69 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 14d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Cavaliers 53¢ $15 58d
Pelicans vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 77¢ $1 92d
Will Vanilla Ninja win Eesti Laul 2026? BUY No 53¢ $6 131d
Wizards vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline BUY Wizards 21¢ $1 139d
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina BUY Gauff 53¢ $30 148d
Australian Open Women's: Maddison Inglis vs Iga Swiatek BUY Inglis $1 149d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 18¢ $5 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 16¢ $10 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 29¢ $20 155d
Bucks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 45¢ $50 155d
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 161d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.90 · official $163.90 (match) · 200 history records