trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 100% | 0% | -6.0% |
| ≤30d | 30 | -14.4% | -22.6% | 73% | 30% | -21.7% |
| ≤90d | 30 | -14.4% | -22.6% | 73% | 30% | -21.7% |
| all | 30 | -14.4% | -22.6% | 73% | 30% | -21.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.6% | 30% | -21.7% |
| 10% | -30.0% | 17% | -29.2% |
| 15% | -36.8% | 3% | -36.1% |
| 20% | -43.0% | 3% | -42.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 21? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $109 | +$9 (+9%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $106 | +$6 (+6%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $104 | +$4 (+4%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 63¢ | 28¢ | $100 | $44 | −$56 (-56%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? | Jun 14 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? | Jun 14 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? | Jun 14 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$29 | +29% |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? | Jun 12 | $101 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? | Jun 12 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$8 | +8% |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? | Jun 11 | $200 | +$6 | +3% |
| Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? | Jun 11 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$18 | +18% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$10 | +10% |
| Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$7 | +7% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 10? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$30 | +30% |
| Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$28 | +28% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $95 | +$17 | +18% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? | Jun 09 | $62 | +$20 | +32% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? | Jun 04 | $103 | −$100 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? | Jun 04 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $202 | −$140 | -69% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? | Jun 04 | $102 | +$79 | +77% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? | Jun 03 | $100 | +$10 | +10% |
| Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 2? | Jun 03 | $501 | +$36 | +7% |