Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

7E 0x7ebe…5966 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$88 (+70%) realized +$49 · open +$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip

Net edge+98%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+105.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+127.3%	+105.7%	100%	100%	+105.2%
≤30d	2	+127.3%	+105.7%	100%	100%	+105.2%
≤90d	2	+127.3%	+105.7%	100%	100%	+105.2%
all	2	+127.3%	+105.7%	100%	100%	+105.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+105.7%	100%	+105.2%
10%	+86.0%	100%	+85.5%
15%	+68.0%	100%	+67.6%
20%	+51.5%	100%	+51.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +127% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +127% · $-wt +127% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$124

Realized+$49

Unrealized+$39

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)2 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	2¢	50¢	$3	$66	+$63 (+2100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	45¢	50¢	$23	$25	+$2 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Down	82¢	50¢	$40	$24	−$16 (-40%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	10¢	4¢	$19	$9	−$10 (-55%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$21	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 21	$19	+$28	+150%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	82¢	$41	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$20	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$19	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	10¢	$20	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.06 · official $124.06 (match) · 9 history records