Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7ebc…98e5 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$46 (+8%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$15
crypto 11% +$2
other 9% +$21
sports 8% +$31
politics 4% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -9.5% -18.2% 0% 0% -19.5%
≤30d 10 -7.8% -16.5% 10% 0% -14.0%
≤90d 10 -7.8% -16.5% 10% 0% -14.0%
all 21 +8.6% -1.7% 48% 14% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 14% -1.2%
10% -11.1% 14% -10.6%
15% -19.7% 14% -19.3%
20% -27.6% 10% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage484d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $42 −$13 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $2 $0 +8%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 20 $48 +$21 +43%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 4? Mar 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Houston Christian vs. Texas A&M Commerce Mar 03 $15 −$2 -11%
Illinois State vs. Southern Illinois Mar 03 $31 +$33 +104%
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 25 $10 +$21 +201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $37 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $23 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $19 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $42 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $50 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.22 · official $35.24 (match) · 67 history records