Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7eba…827e crypto 974 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,594 (-10%) realized −$2,603 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%491W / 482L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day77.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$361
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 33% -41.7%
≤30d 862 +0.5% -9.0% 52% 52% -9.4%
≤90d 973 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% -10.9%
all 973 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 50% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 50% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 50% -19.4%
15% -27.0% 50% -27.2%
20% -34.2% 50% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$2,603
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses491 / 482
Open positions1
Markets (closed)973 / 974
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day77.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 973 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 51¢ 97¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$25 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$23 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.02 · official $18.66 (match) · 3500 history records