Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eb9…dd8e crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$885 (-36%) realized −$883 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days−$785
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$66
sports 35% −$852
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.3% -19.8% 47% 47% +9.5%
≤30d 34 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 44% -41.9%
≤90d 34 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 44% -41.9%
all 34 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 44% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 44% -41.9%
10% -29.4% 41% -47.4%
15% -36.2% 35% -52.5%
20% -42.5% 29% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$69 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$883
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage27d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $217 $215 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $67 +$48 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$57 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$50 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $78 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $423 −$416 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $104 −$47 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 25 $103 +$85 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 25 $82 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 25 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $104 +$121 +116%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $444 −$436 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 24 $41 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 24 $21 +$20 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $42 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.19 · official $215.19 (match) · 69 history records