Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eb7…9fb5 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$47 (-19%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate54%22W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 47% +$5
crypto 34% −$45
sports 18% −$7
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -27.3% -34.2% 38% 31% -32.0%
≤30d 26 -27.3% -34.2% 38% 31% -32.0%
≤90d 41 -20.6% -28.1% 54% 22% -28.1%
all 41 -20.6% -28.1% 54% 22% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 22% -28.1%
10% -35.0% 20% -35.0%
15% -41.3% 20% -41.3%
20% -47.0% 20% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses22 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)41 / 56
History coverage68d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Roar Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK 65¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 60¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 67¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage InterActive Philippines 50¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+99%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 62¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 57¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Yakult Brothers 56¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Roar Gaming 64¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11? May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 18? May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 17? Apr 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 14? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 13? Apr 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 13? Apr 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 12 Apr 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 13 Apr 12 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 09 $51 −$30 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 09 $35 −$15 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $1 9m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 52¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 62¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 57¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $1 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 53¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 64¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 60¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $1 2h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 56¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 67¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 53¢ $1 10h
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY RisingRage 62¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Infinite 44¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 65¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 77¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 41¢ $1 13h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 62¢ $1 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $1 14h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 53¢ $1 15h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 99¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $1 15h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 68¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.85 · official $15.85 (match) · 92 history records