Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7eb4…97a1 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$22 (-6%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 47% -9.2%
≤30d 15 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 47% -9.2%
≤90d 15 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 47% -9.2%
all 15 +6.1% -4.0% 60% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 47% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 40% -17.9%
15% -21.6% 33% -25.8%
20% -29.2% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records